U.S. import volumes are stabilizing but structural risks are accumulating — Analysis of the June 2026 Descartes Global Shipping Report

I. Total Imports: Long-term Stability Amid Short-term Fluctuations

According to the June 2026 Global Shipping Report released by Descartes, U.S. container imports in that month were 2,400,627 TEU, down 1.2% month-over-month but up 8.2% year-over-year. Looking at the first half of 2026 as a whole, import volume was almost flat compared to the same period last year (a slight decrease of 0.3%), but was 22.2% higher than the same period in 2019 before the pandemic. This data indicates that U.S. import demand has not experienced a sharp contraction, but has entered a plateau period on a high base.

However, behind the apparent "stability," supply chain decisions are being driven by multiple structural factors. As Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy at Descartes, stated, maritime risks in the Middle East, escalating tariff uncertainty, new draft restrictions in the Panama Canal, and ongoing Red Sea disruptions are becoming the main sources of volatility in global trade for the second half of the year.

II. Source Country Diversification: Vietnam and Indonesia Rise, Germany Contracts

From the perspective of source country structure, the total container volume from the top ten source countries in June decreased slightly by 0.3% (4,644 TEU) month-over-month, with China down 0.2% (1,723 TEU), continuing the normal decline after strong growth in May. Notably, Vietnam saw the largest increase (+2.5%, 6,724 TEU), followed closely by Indonesia (+11.6%, 6,286 TEU). At the same time, imports from Germany fell sharply by 13.2% (8,453 TEU).

This divergence is not incidental. The growth in Vietnam and Indonesia reflects the ongoing "China+1" diversification strategy implemented by U.S. importers, especially in furniture, electronics, and textiles. Germany, as an exporter of high-end European manufacturing, its decline may be related to U.S. trade policy uncertainty towards the EU and a shift in production capacity due to weak domestic demand in Europe.

III. Port Landscape: West Coast Share Rebounds, East Coast and Gulf Coast Under Pressure

Data at the port level more clearly shows the adjustment of supply chain routes. In June, the market share of West Coast ports (Los Angeles/Long Beach, etc.) rose from 42.3% in May to 44.6%, while the share of East Coast and Gulf Coast ports fell from 42.0% to 39.6%. Among them, the Port of New York/New Jersey dropped 18.4% month-over-month (68,449 TEU), and the Port of Houston fell 21.7% (42,137 TEU). The Port of Los Angeles bucked the trend with a 16.1% increase (70,495 TEU).

This reversal contrasts with the earlier congestion at East Coast ports due to Panama Canal draft restrictions and Red Sea diversions. Currently, importers may be more inclined to choose West Coast routes to avoid uncertainties on trans-Pacific routes, while East Coast ports have temporarily lost competitiveness under infrastructure pressure. The top ten ports together handled 84.3% of U.S. container imports, up from 83.9% in May, indicating that cargo is further concentrating in core hubs.## 4. Geopolitics and Trade Policy: New Challenges for Supply Chain Resilience

• The report specifically emphasizes that geopolitical events and tariff changes will become the biggest drivers of supply chain decisions in the second half of the year. Specifically:
• Middle East shipping risks: The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea continue, forcing merchant ships to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit time and costs;
• Tariff uncertainty: The tariff policies of the US towards major trading partners such as China and Europe remain unclear, making it difficult for importers to formulate long-term procurement plans;
• Panama Canal drought: Ongoing draft restrictions reduce the canal's navigability, affecting the efficiency of routes from Asia to the US East Coast.

Against this backdrop, importers' core strategies are shifting towards: diversifying procurement sources, making landed costs transparent, and establishing risk mitigation mechanisms. These strategies are reshaping the geographic distribution and logistics networks of North American import trade.

5. Conclusion: From "Pursuing Efficiency" to "Managing Volatility"

US import data for the first half of 2026 shows that global trade has entered a "period of normal volatility." The stability of total volume masks the drastic reconfiguration at the country-of-origin and port levels. For supply chain managers, the past "just-in-time" (JIT) model focused on minimizing costs is giving way to a "risk-adjusted cost" model centered on resilience and visibility.

In the coming months, the Red Sea situation, trade policy direction after the US election, and the operational status of the Panama Canal will collectively determine the final shape of transpacific trade flows. Importers need to continuously monitor these variables and establish flexible backup routes and supplier portfolios to cope with potential shocks at any time.