Global Trade Expansion Under Price Pressure: Merchandise Trade Reached $13.7 Trillion in the First Half of 2026

The Nominal Growth of Global Trade and the Logic of Prices

In the first half of 2026, the value of global merchandise trade is estimated to have reached $13.7 trillion, an increase of 12.5% over the same period in 2025. This figure comes from an update to global trade monitoring, showing that global trade continues to expand under price pressures. The sharp rise in nominal growth needs to be understood from the two dimensions of price and volume. When commodity, energy, and transportation costs are high, the value of trade is affected by a price multiplier, while the actual flow of goods may not have grown at the same pace. But this does not mean that trade has lost momentum—quite the contrary, price pressure itself is a signal of restructuring in both demand and supply.

Passive Adjustments and Active Restructuring of Supply Chains

Price pressures are forcing deeper adjustments in global supply chains. Cost-sensitive industries are beginning to shift to regions with lower factor costs, while nearshoring closer to consumer markets is also clearly heating up. In Asia, the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has improved the level of intra-regional trade facilitation, making the flow of intermediate goods within the region more frequent; in Europe, energy price fluctuations are prompting companies to relocate some capacity back home or to areas with more developed renewable energy infrastructure; in the Americas, manufacturing reshoring and friend-shoring policies are being implemented in parallel, reshaping trade routes across the Atlantic and the Pacific.

The Logistics System Faces Tests of Speed and Cost

The growth in trade volume continues to put pressure on global logistics networks. Although port congestion has eased compared to previous years, fuel costs and empty-container repositioning costs under price pressure still affect the operational strategies of liner companies. To cope with uncertainty, major ports and shipping companies are accelerating their digital transformation, improving end-to-end visibility and responsiveness through real-time data sharing, intelligent scheduling, and blockchain-based bill of lading applications. Supply chain finance and inventory management technologies are also being upgraded in tandem, helping companies maintain cash flow resilience in a high-cost environment.

Geopolitics and Trade Policy Intertwine

The persistence of price pressures has not fragmented the global trading system; on the contrary, it has pushed countries to seek a higher degree of coordination at the regional level. Although WTO reform is progressing slowly, regional trade agreements have become important tools for stabilizing expectations. Globally, supply chain security has been elevated to the level of national strategy. Export controls, investment reviews, and infrastructure connectivity plans are all redefining the boundaries of international trade. It is worth noting that developing countries are gaining more opportunities in resource exports and manufacturing uptake, but at the same time they face risks from capital flows and fluctuations in external demand.

Long-Term Trends: Rebalancing Efficiency and Security

The long-term trajectory of global trade will no longer be a simple linear growth path, but rather a process of rebalancing between efficiency and security. Price pressures may persist, but they are also promoting more transparent pricing mechanisms and more resilient contractual arrangements. The global layout of manufacturing will give greater consideration to multiple factors, including energy costs, the policy environment, infrastructure, and political risk. During this transitional phase, interdependence among trading partners will not be weakened, but will instead be deepened in new forms.The trade data from the first half of 2026 provides a cross-section for observing a new phase of globalization. Global trade is expanding under pressure, evolving through restructuring, and ultimately forming a global network that is more complex but also more adaptive.